1. These 14 confirmed cases are just the tip of the iceberg. How big is the iceberg? We will only know in retrospect, upon asking future confirmed COVID-19 patients when they first started having symptoms. There are many people having ‘flu like symptoms’ at the moment in the country. There is no absolute clear distinction in the symptoms between the cold, flu or COVID. Some people are currently carriers and spreaders of the virus WITHOUT ANY SYMPTOMS. This is why everyone should stay at home, except for critical travel. (Going to the shops or market to buy things you desire to cook is not a critical need. Cook and eat whatever you have already. Please understand this. )
2. There are a lot of COVID 19/SARS Cov-2 tests pending at the moment. The number of confirmed cases will rise by the end of the day. Mauritius is using reverse transcription viral PCR method, which had a sensitivity of 71% in China. This means only 7 out of 10 patients with the virus will be detected. This test, which consists of a swab of the throat/nose, also relies on the swab tip actually picking up viral material at the time of the test. There is no gold standard test for COVID 19. CT Scans picked up the features of pneumonia or lung infection (Ground Glass Opacification) in 98% of severe COVID-19 (Salehi et al., 2020), however this is not a diagnostic test, as other causes of lung infection, and e.g. bacteria can produce similar findings on CT. The best way to minimize the impact of all these uncertainties with regards to testing is to STAY AT HOME, EVEN IF YOU TEST NEGATIVE! Take paracetamol, stay hydrated and stay in if you have mild to moderate symptoms. If deteriorating further, call government hotlines instead of going to see a doctor or going to hospital.
3. Retrospective statistical analyses of Chinese cases found that there were up to 27 times the number of confirmed cases through governmental contact tracing during the first week of the epidemic. This means that there could be 14×27=378 cases of COVID 19 at the moment in Mauritius. It’s a hypothetical figure based on Chinese statistics, and they tested many many more than we are. We won’t be uncovering all positive cases, lest asymptomatic ones. It’s highly likely that there are many more than 378 cases here, and YOU could be one of them. So please, STAY CONFINED.
4. Officially reported cases are doubling every day here. 3 to 7 to 14 today on Day 3. If we don’t take additional confinement’s measures, by Day 7 this number could grow to 250, if we keep testing at the same pace. 250 tip of iceberg = 250×27 = I don’t need to play with numbers anymore. The only way to flatten the curve is to STAY ISOLATED ST HOME.
5. We are an island with very limited medical resources such as Intensive care beds, medications, ventilators, masks, doctors and nurses. We are far away from manufacturers of drugs and medical devices. We are a small market and our orders for intensive care meds or devices will not be prioritized. We do not have 3D printing facilities or formula one companies working on ventilators for our patients. But we are smart people; we understand that we can only help ourselves and each other by limiting the spread of this disease so that we don’t overwhelm our healthcare system. We can be as good as Singapore or South Korea if we take a deep breath and stay isolated for two to three weeks. Ask yourself: would you rather be bored in isolation or bury your dear ones? This is a time when our actions have a direct and potentially lifesaving impact on each other and we must rise to the challenge. As one people, as one nation 🔥
Stay safe, stay true to your loved ones and stay inside your home.
Arshad Damree, Medical Doctor, Practicing in Australia and currently in Mauritius.